Potencial de Tiempo Severo esta semana en las regiones de Oklahoma & Kansas
" On Wednesday/D4, an upper trough will progress across the Four Corners states, with a belt of 60-70 kt midlevel flow and cooling aloft spreading into the southern and central Plains during the day. Meanwhile, low pressure will deepen over southeast CO, with a dryline from southwest KS across western OK and into northwest TX. To the north, a quasi-stationary front will extend from central KS into central IA and southern WI. Southerly winds will bring rich boundary-layer moisture northward across TX, OK, and into southern KS, with 65-70 F dewpoints over TX and OK.
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing in a warm advection regime from eastern NE into northern MO, aided by a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may reinforce the boundary, and or shift it a bit south. Precipitation by the models contain quite a bit of variance, with some models showing storms forming around 18Z over KS. Some of this may be an artifact of steep lapse rates aloft combined with moist mid to upper level profiles. In any case, high clouds may be a concern regarding heating as forecast soundings have consistently shown substantial high cloud potential. Still, 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE is expected across the warm sector due to robust low-level moisture and steep lapse rates aloft. Shear profiles will strongly favor supercells, including the threat of tornadoes and very large hail. ECMWF hodographs depict large streamwise vorticity in the lowest 1km with significant tornado potential across the 30% area. Storms should focus along the dryline and also the front/outflow across KS. Other severe storms are expected during the evening across west-central TX where a southeasterly low-level jet will exist bring moisture westward where temperatures aloft will be cool. Hail and wind is most likely there. "
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